By Florine Roche

Mangaluru, Nov 13: With the five states going for assembly elections in November-December this year and the general elections 2019 looming large the country is going through an election mode. Many political parties have shown urgency for a possible realignment keeping in view the changing political equations in the country. The by-poll results of Karnataka is now a passé. It was like another quarterfinal match and now the real test is coming in the keenly awaited results of the assembly elections in five states. The stage is set to witness this semifinal match to be followed by the much anticipated grand finale – the 2019 general elections.

The assembly elections of the four northern states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram and the southern state of Telangana, scheduled in November-December are equated to a semifinal match. The result of the assembly elections in these states is considered as the precursor to the 2019 general elections and hence these elections have acquired seriousness much graver than the recent Karnataka by-elections results.

The by-poll results of Karnataka were no doubt in the expected lines because by-elections are normally won by the party in power in the particular state. However, the huge margin of victory for the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the all the four seats it won including BJP stronghold Bellary, is no doubt a setback for the BJP. Though the party was expected to win only the Shivamogga parliamentary seat it was in for a rude shock in terms of the margin of victory of the opponents. It comes at a time when the party’s morale in the state is down after the alliance of convenience between JD(S) and Congress that denied it an opportunity to govern despite emerging as the single largest party. It was like so near yet so far. Secondly, Karnataka being BJP’s only gateway in the south the party’s pan-India dreams now stand checkmated especially at a time when the BJP cannot afford to do it in view of the 2019 general elections. Post by-elections, the Congress-JD(S) alliance having overcome the initial hiccups of coalition compulsions is on a firm footing, adding to BJP’s bundle of woes. Naturally, the political developments in Karnataka must be a major cause of worry for BJP’s central leadership which was expecting to expand its base in the south.

Karnataka by-poll result has given a big boost to the idea of formation of the grand alliance by forging together anti-BJP parties ahead of the 2019 general elections. It was during Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in-ceremony in Karnataka in May this year the opposition leaders had come together enlivening the dreams of the grand alliance for the next general elections to stop Modi’s juggernaut. Once again Karnataka is hosting the leaders of the opposition in December-January where the grand alliance might take a concrete shape.

But before that, the regional satraps of various states must be keenly awaiting the results of the assembly election of the five states, which is sure to add a new dimension to the already charged political atmosphere. It will also decide the fate of the grand alliance which has been in the making for quite some time now and also the fate of the BJP to some extent.

Down memory lane

The assembly election in these five states takes my memory exactly to 25 years back to late 1993. I was part of the journalistic group that toured the north as a political reporter to assess the political situation in these states and report. The political situation in 1993 in the north was very fragile in the wake of the demolition of Ramjanmbhoomi-Babri Masjid in December 1992. Following this, the then Congress President Narasimha Rao had dismissed Uttar Pradesh and three other BJP ruled states - Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan resulting in by-elections in these four states and in Delhi. The BJP had coined a catchy slogan - ‘aaj paanch pradesh kal saraa desh’ (victory in five states today, the rest of the country tomorrow) and it was viewed as a ‘mini general election’. The Congress was in tatters not knowing how to deal with the situation post the demolition of the structure. The general feeling was that the BJP would sweep the elections on the basis of the Ayodhya issue, which did not happen.

The overall results of the election were disappointing for the BJP which managed to win only Delhi and had lost badly in Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The results were a slap on the ineffective, corrupt administration and the high-handed style of functioning of the BJP governments in the two states. In Uttar Pradesh, it lost power narrowly to SP-BSP combine but expanded its base emerging as the single largest party. In Rajasthan too the party had consolidated its position and this consolidation went on to yield good results and in 1996 general elections it emerged as the single largest party. The once powerful Congress party began to lose its invincibility and it has been steady downslide since then. The rest is history and in a period of two years between 1996 and 1998, the country saw three Prime Ministers – Atal Bihari Vajpayee, H D Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral.

Similar situation

The country is once again witnessing a similar political situation today though the situation today is completely different from what it was in 1993. The Congress was a powerful party unlike the BJP and today we are seeing the reversal of roles. The party is now reduced to a situation where in party stalwart like P Chidambaram was forced to make a hullaballoo tweeting proudly about the Congress winning four seats in the recent by-elections. Today the Congress is in power in only three small states Punjab, Meghalaya, Mizoram and in Karnataka. In Karnataka, the Congress is reduced to playing a second fiddle to JD(S). In a bid to stall the BJP the Congress gave the post of Chief Minister to JD(S) which managed to win only 37 seats in the assembly elections held in May this year. Theoretically, it can be said the Congress is in power in 3 ½ states of the country.

Whether the grand alliance will become a reality or whether Congress will be relegated to the third position in the event of the formation of grand alliance remains to be seen. The results of Madhya Pradesh will be crucial. For the Congress and BJP, the results of Telangana assembly may not have any bearing. Even then, it can be said that the grand old party is down but not out yet. The incumbency factor and the arrogance of BJP dispensation in Rajasthan has given hope for the Congress to revive its falling fortunes. One has to wait and see whether the present aggressive stand of Rahul Gandhi is going to pay off or not. The Congress is, in fact, playing into the hands of the BJP by trying to placate majority Hindus where it matters by visiting temples and also plays the minority card where it feels it can rely on them. By doing so it shows that it is no different from the BJP whom it accuses of being a communal party.

Let us wait for the results of December 11, 2018, to know who is going to qualify to play the finals against the BJP.