Kolkata, Dec 23 (IANS): As the Congress is yet to give any assurance on joining hands with the Trinamool Congress for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the major concern of the state’s ruling party is the probable division in minority votes as against the increasing consolidation of majority mandates in different pockets of the state.

The concerns of the Trinamool Congress leadership on this count have been aggravated by the All India Secular Front’s (AISF) decision to field candidates independently from a number of Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal where the percentage of minority votes are enough to decide the fate of the candidates there.

Naushad Siddique, the lone AISF representative in the West Bengal Assembly has already announced that he is keen to contest from the Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha constituency in South 24 Parganas constituency, where the percentage of the minority voters is the principal deciding factor and where the sitting Lok Sabha member is the Trinamool Congress’ General Secretary, Abhishek Banerjee.

An analysis of the results of Diamond Harbour constituency in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls revealed that Banerjee’s landslide victory there last time was mainly because of 95 per cent of voters’ consolidation in favour of Trinamool Congress in the minority-dominated pockets as against partial consolidation of majority voters against the state’s ruling party in the majority-dominated pockets.

As of now, besides Diamond Harbour, AISF wants to contest from at least nine other Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal in the districts of Malda, Murshidabad, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Hooghly and Nadia districts, where the minority are in substantial numbers to decide the fate of any candidate.

Siddique ruled out the possibility of having any kind of understanding with the Trinamool Congress. He has even gone to the extent of saying that he would have loved to be a part of the grand Opposition INDIA bloc had the Trinamool Congress not been a part of it.

“Considering the skyrocketing popularity of Siddique among the minority youth since the panchayat elections this year, it will be difficult for Trinamool Congress to undermine the AISF factor in 2025 especially as regards to division in minority votes. That is precisely why Trinamool Congress leaders had been constantly trying to identify AISF and Siddique as the clandestine agents of the BJP in West Bengal just as the Asaduddin Owaisi-founded All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen is in other states,” pointed out a senior city-based political analyst.

Understanding the threat posed by AISF with regards to the division of minority votes, Trinamool Congress is desperate to have a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress to ensure consolidation of the minority vote bank which stands solidly behind the grand old party, especially in the Muslim-dominated districts of Malda and Murshidabad, say political observers.

Political analysts here noted a sudden change in the stance of the Trinamool Congress and Mamata Banerjee just before the INDIA bloc meeting on December 19 and just after that.

“Before the meeting, the Trinamool Congress leadership started propaganda over the face of the INDIA bloc and even the chief minister said that Bengal will lead INDIA. However, during the meeting, Mamata Banerjee proposed the name of the Congress’ National President Mallikarjun Kharge as INDIA bloc’s prime ministerial candidate,” pointed out a political observer.

According to him, there can be two reasons behind this changed stand of Mamata Banerjee. “The first reason is that by proposing Kharge’s name she tried to give a subtle message to the Congress of assured support in case of favourable results for the INDIA bloc in the 2024 polls. The second reason might be that in case of any disaster for the INDIA bloc, the responsibility of that disaster will rest on the Congress’ shoulders,” he added.