Daijiworld Media Network - Washington

Washington, Feb 25: Earth will remain unscathed as NASA officially rules out the possibility of an asteroid collision in 2032, quelling fears that asteroid 2024 YR4—a space rock the size of a football field—could strike the planet.

Earlier predictions had estimated a 3.1% chance of impact, the highest probability ever recorded for an asteroid of this magnitude. Scientists had warned that, if it struck, cities like Mumbai and Lagos could face devastation.

However, NASA’s latest calculations show the impact probability has plummeted to just 0.004% (1 in 25,000), confirming that Earth is no longer at risk.

The space agency announced the update on its X (formerly Twitter) account, stating:

"The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.004%. It’s expected to safely pass Earth in 2032."
NASA navigation engineer Davide Farnocchia admitted he had little concern about the asteroid’s initial threat.
"I knew this was likely to go away as we collected more data. I was sleeping pretty well," he said.

The alarm was first raised on December 27, 2024, when astronomers spotted 2024 YR4 moving through space with an early estimate of more than 1% chance of impact—an unusually high probability for an asteroid of its size. Over time, the likelihood climbed: 1.2%, then 2%, peaking at 3.1% last Tuesday.

Farnocchia explained that uncertainty in early trajectory estimates is common when an asteroid is newly discovered. As additional observations are made, the path becomes clearer—sometimes revealing that the object was never a real threat.

While Earth is safe, there’s still a 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the moon, potentially leaving a new crater on its surface.

NASA will continue monitoring the asteroid as it remains visible until April 2025, after which it will disappear from view until 2028.

As the news spread, reactions on social media ranged from relief to humor. One user joked, "Aliens decided to give us another chance," while another wrote, "Appreciate the update, was about to stop paying bills."

For NASA, this episode highlights the importance of early detection and tracking of potential threats.

"The asteroid is going to do what it’s going to do, but our ability to track it and rule out threats in advance is exactly what we’re supposed to do," Farnocchia emphasized.