Daijiworld Media Network - Beirut

Beirut, Apr 20: Arab economies are bracing for a significant blow amid surging US trade protectionism, with over $22 billion in non-oil exports now at risk, according to a stark warning issued by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).

In a policy brief, ESCWA pointed to a ‘mounting pressure’ on countries across the region due to the sweeping tariff measures recently imposed by the United States under President Donald Trump's controversial "reciprocal tariffs" policy. The move has raised concerns across global markets, and Arab nations heavily reliant on US trade are sounding the alarm.

Jordan is identified as the most vulnerable, with nearly 25 per cent of its total exports headed to the US. Bahrain also stands exposed due to its dependence on aluminum and chemical product shipments to the American market.

The UAE could take an even bigger hit, with around $10 billion worth of US-bound re-exports now facing disruption. These re-exports, often comprised of goods originally manufactured in other countries, are increasingly being targeted under the new US tariff framework.

The ESCWA brief warns that alongside trade setbacks, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are grappling with financial strains due to falling global oil prices—a blow to public revenues that could compound the effects of declining exports.

Non-GCC nations are also in the firing line. ESCWA projects that Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, and Tunisia together may be saddled with an additional $114 million in sovereign interest payments in 2025, as rising global bond yields inflate borrowing costs. These increased liabilities threaten to constrain national budgets and delay critical development programs, it added.

The heightened trade tensions stem from a sweeping executive order signed by President Trump earlier this month. Under the order, trading partners failing to reach new agreements with the US by July 9—the end of a 90-day pause—will face steep tariffs. Goods from countries without finalized trade deals will be taxed at previously announced "reciprocal" rates.

For India, this means tariffs on certain exports to the US could jump back to 26 per cent from the current 10 per cent. Other nations, including China, that opted to negotiate instead of retaliating with tariffs on US products are facing similar threats of revised rates.

With the deadline looming and negotiations intensifying, Arab states now find themselves navigating an increasingly uncertain global trade landscape—one that could test their economic resilience in the months ahead.