November 6, 2024
The 60th United States Presidential elections is barely 24 hours away, as the world watches in anticipation and with few butterflies in the stomach the ultimate race to the White house between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate and her rival former President Donald J Trump the candidate from the Republican party. The American public and the media cares-less on what each candidate brings to the table, rather they seem more interested in rage, hostility and entertainment. The US elections have become proxy versions of reality TV shows and often keep the networks in business. The opinion polls, a colossal profit industry in America dishes out on every election year, some of the most outrages survey numbers with impunity and without any validation. For several decades, in most of the presidential elections post the 20th century, the American pollsters have been proved wrong and grossly inaccurate, yet the hyperbolic American media wants its public and the world to believe in their pollsters. As the campaigns concluded, The Pollsters have given an equal 50 – 50 mandates to both the candidates and subtly washed their hands off as a toss up. Nearly, thirty percent of population have already casted their ballots through early voting and mail in ballots; a unique system of casting votes only in America that is inane and amusing. Is it because a large number of Americans are mocked as couch-potatoes and are too lazy to wait in long lines and vote?
Vice President Kamala Harris was handed over the reigns of running for the presidency from incumbent sitting president of the United States Joe Biden. Some of the detractors of democratic party have questioned this sudden move just three months before the elections as they circumvented the mandatory primary poll round for Kamala Harris, hence blocking a democratic process of choosing a candidate. The Primary process is designed to choose the candidates that will represent their political parties in the general election. Moreover, President Joe Biden has aged and lost most of his cognitive capacities. The insider reporters say that US President is not in a mental position to make any decisions that effect the country. Kamala Harris was born to a mixed parentage, her mother was an Indian origin scientist and her father is of Jamaican origin and is a leading Economist in America. Harris is a qualified lawyer and a public prosecutor, served as the Attorney general in the state of California and climbed the political ladder through her activism for several left leaning and liberal causes in American Politics.
Donald Trump, a hotshot billionaire businessman, a real estate Mughal and a TV celebrity decided to run for the office for the 2016 presidential elections. Initially, nobody believed it, people quashed it as a buffoon wanting a TV space, the Media called it a publicity stunt to bucket his failed businesses. As the race intensified, Trump routed all his opponents and became the republican nominee for the presidency. He later went on to defeat Hillary Clinton to win the presidency by sending shock waves to media pundits, political experts and world leaders that had predicted his loss. Trump’s tenure as the American president was extremely contentious as he materialised some of his radical policies that he had promised in his campaign, and yet his presidency was filled with dichotomy. America prospered economically, stock markets hit the roof, the working class in the industrial belt of America benefited heavily as manufacturing was brought back to local towns of middle America. Then came, the diabolic and the contagious Covid 19 virus that rampaged America and the entire world. Lives were lost, lockdowns had adversely effected businesses, people lost jobs and small businesses and many more began experiencing mental issues. Trump was never able to repair the damages that he incurred politically and suffered a tight defeat in the 2020 elections losing to Joe Biden.
The primary issues among the American public in this years elections are Inflation, Southern Border crisis, lack of business and job opportunities and social issues through the rise of radical liberal ideologies that have infiltrated to schools and colleges across America. Ever since the Ukraine-Russia war, the fuel and grocery prices have spiked abnormally both in United states and Canada. The American border in the south with Mexico has seen the influx of hundreds and thousands of illegal migrants that have come from south America, Africa and Asia and have found amnesty in American cities due to open acceptance policies of Biden’s government. Trump is running a hardline and a rigorous campaign to weed out the illegal immigration in America and has pledged to carry out a mass deportation programme, he is also banking heavy on keeping fossil fuel industry as it serves as a major workforce in the country.
Trump has wowed to put an end to wars in Europe (Ukraine-Russia) and in the middle east between Israel and rest of the Arab – Persian world. One of the most shameful and embarrassing episodes of Biden-Harris administration was the Taliban take over Afghanistan, as America was left standstill and helpless as the country went into oblivion. As strong men leaders like Putin, Xi-Jinping, Victor Orban, Kim Jong, Ramphosa, Modi etc have been calling the shots in geo-political landscape, America is seeking a similar strong man to counter its adversaries. The American Public has other concerns, as Trump has been seen as vile, destructive and autocratic in his mannerisms that are contrary to founding principle of America.
Kamala Harris Voters are mostly in the urban areas and the cities of America. Women, largely the college educated younger women under the age of 50 are her strong base. Women in America vote on unilateral issues like abortion rights, they demand to have control over their reproductive rights and not have the government decide on their body, although there is a caveat to this issue. There are Abortion clinics in the states that are running a business of aborting fetuses as late as seven months to the pregnancy, which has created a major and a relentless debate in American politics for decades.
Latin Americans (Hispanics, Spanish speaking population from Central and south America) that make 15% of American population and have a significant present in swing states that decide the elections could play a significant role. Arab-Muslim and Indian Americans that make up close to 5 precent of the population have shifted their interests towards Trumps’s policies in the recent times. The rural America and the older white demography serve as Trump’s heavy base. He has a mammoth acceptance among men over the age of forty. The bipolar division among men and women voters, and the young and the older voters and the rural and urban divide makes the US polls extremely puzzling and therefore they remain consistently inaccurate. Therefore, this election comes down to voter turnout on the election day, where nearly 70 percent of American voters will be casting their ballots.
The US elections is decided not by the popular vote (Vote share) nationwide but by the electoral college. Therefore, even if a candidate gets a greater number of votes nationwide, that doesn’t guarantee his/her win. What matters is the number of states a candidate wins, and each state has unique number of electoral points. Most states in America have a binary division, half of them blue (Democrats) and rest half red (Republican). However, there are about Five states that are called Swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia) that swing to either party in each election and have virtually become the deciding factors in the battle to claim the white house.