Daijiworld Media Network – Mangaluru

Mangaluru, Mar 16: The power sharing formula experiment between the Congress and JD (S) which the opposition termed as ‘unholy alliance’ ran through tough times many times in the last nine months. The coalition is once again going through a political storm but for a different reason this time. Following the seat sharing   arrangements for the Lok Sabha elections there is chaos and disappointment in the Congress rank and file.   The 20:8 seat sharing deal has upset the Congress which has been forced to relinquish several seats considered to be Congress bastions. State Congress leadership is upset that the seat sharing formula is advantageous to the JD (S) and the Congress may lose its base in the state. The JD (S) which has a strong presence in old Mysuru region confining only to 6 districts and ceding 8 seats to them is termed as a complete surrender by the Congress to a regional party.

Congress national chief Rahul Gandhi and JD(S) state chief Kumaraswamy

The seat sharing agreement looks fair outwardly but it is not so. The JD(S) has been able to retain its bastions like Mandya, Hassan and Shivamogga and it got the remaining five as a bonus through its bargaining power. Many in the Congress believe that the unreasonable seat sharing formula reached between the Congress and JD(S) has come as a boon to the BJP which is going to be the final beneficiary. It is feared that there might be mass defections of important Congress leaders to the BJP. There is also the possibility that Congress leaders might support the BJP or may remain neutral which might ultimately help the BJP. Of the 8 seats given to JD (S) four are represented by the BJP and one by the Congress.

Local dynamics differ

Leaders of the Congress and JD (S) might have clinched the deal first in Delhi by   JD (S) supremo H D Deve Gowda and finalised when JD (S) general secretary Danish Ali met Rahul Gandhi in Kochi. However, the reality at the ground level is different because locally Congress and JD (S) workers don’t like each other and may not work for each other. This is evident from the reactions from 3 of the 8 constituencies – Tumakuru, Udupi-Chikkamagaluru, Uttara Kannada ceded to the JD (S). Conceding these constituencies to the JD (S) has not gone down well in the Congress. In Tumakuru Congress leaders have raised a banner of revolt. R V Deshpande has also tweeted expressing her anger as the Congress feels it has a strong base here. In Bengaluru North too all Congress MLAs are reportedly upset following the seat going to the JD (S).

Even in Hassan and Mandya which are JD(S) fiefdoms, there is opposition from Congress workers who are opposing fielding of Gowda’s grandsons. A serious backlash is expected from local Congress leaders and party workers. In Udupi, Youth Congress members burnt tyres in front of the Congress Bhavan to express their ire. AICC member Amrith Shenoy came out in the open against the decision of the Congress and expressed his desire to resign from AICC post. 

JD(S) national chief Deve Gowda and Congress leader Siddaramaiah 

In 2014 general elections the BJP had won 17 seats, Congress 9 and JD (S) had won 2 seats. In the bypolls held in 2018, the BJP yielded the Bellary seat to the Congress taking its tally to 10. On this basis it can be said that it is the Congress and not JD(S) which has everything to lose at the expense of JD(S).   Of the 8 seats given to the JD(S) the four seats mentioned above are the bone of contention between the alliance partners and top Congress leaders have been trying to convince the top brass of the Congress to reconsider the decision but in vain. The JD (S) will be able to put a fight in Tumakuru where it is strong and to some extent in North Bengaluru. But it stands no chance in the remaining 4 seats where it has no base.

Ceding Tumakuru constituency to the JD (S) has sent shockwaves among the supporters of Congress MP Muddu Hanume Gowda. His followers approached veteran leader Mallikarjun Kharge to restore it to Gowda without success. Congress leader Siddaramaiah has put the onus on Congress high command saying the state Congress did not want to give Tumakuru to JD (S) but it was the decision of the party high command. Though the JD(S) has a strong presence in Tumakuru it all depends on the next move of Hanume Gowda, who has been sulking ever since. Will he defect to the BJP or remain neutral   is a million dollar question.

Coastal disappointment

In the coastal districts of Karnataka, the BJP has a strong presence and this was proved in the 2018 assembly elections. Both Uttara Kannada constituency, a stronghold of Congress strongman R V Deshpande and Udupi-Chikkamagaluru, another BJP bastion has gone to the JD (S) much to the disappointment of the Congress workers.   Congress leaders in Udupi have protested against the decision and AICC member Amrith Shenoy has expressed his desire to step down. More leaders are expected to follow in his footsteps. The Congress-JD (S) was toying with the idea of fielding former Congress minister (who subsequently defected to BJP) Jayaprakash Hegde to contest from here. Hegde, who has a clean image, is a ticket aspirant from the BJP and has put an end to speculations by saying he will not leave the BJP, whether he gets the ticket or not.

BJP state chief Yeddyurappa 

Veteran Congress leader R V Deshpande was in for a rude shock when his bastion Uttara Kannada was handed over to the JD(S) in the bargain. The constituency is represented by union minister and BJP firebrand Ananth Kumar Hegde, a five time MP, who is often in the news for his provocative and inflammatory statements. Both Deshpande and former Union Minister Margaret Alva are keen to field their kin from this constituency. In the 2014 general elections Hegde had won defeating Prashanth R Deshpande by a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes. Relinquishing the seat to the JD (S) has crashed the hopes of both leaders of the Congress.

Vijayapura is fortress of BJP leader Union Minister Ramesh Jigajinagi who has won from the constituency five times since 1998. JD (S) got Vijayapura seat on the argument that it won two assembly seats in this parliamentary constituency and lost two other by slender margins. All is not well with the BJP in Vijayapura as differences between Ramesh Jigajinagi and MLA Basangouda Patil Yatnal have come out in the open. Just recently Yatnal took to social media to attack Jigajinagi with the aim of security party ticket to one of his supporters. Though BJP has claimed that it will sort out internal differences, the JD(S) aims to cash in on the differences within the BJP.

Apart from these four, Shivamogga, a citadel of state BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa, has come to the JD(S) fold.   JD (S) candidate Madhu Bangarappa gave a close fight in the 2018 by-election to Shivamogga Parliamentary seat which the Congress and JD(S) contested jointly. The by-election was necessitated after Yeddyurappa had vacated the seat after he won the assembly seat. Yeddyurappa’s son B Y Raghavendra was able to scrape through by a margin of about 52,000 votes, significantly lesser than the margin of 3.5 lakhs which Yeddyurappa had won in 2014.

While Congress leaders have openly expressed their anguish for genuflecting to the alliance partner JD(S) countered saying the Congress played safe by dumping the four seats in question on them. JD (S) feels that the Congress lacked strong leaders in these constituencies to give a tough fight to the BJP and hence they were   surrendered to the JD (S). Even after assuming that there is truth in this charge, the JD (S) did manage a better deal at the cost of the Congress. From the two seats it won in 2014 the party now wants to expand its base in the state by fighting the polls jointly with the Congress. The Congress has given the regional party a big push by handing over 8 seats on a platter. The BJP is not complaining though.