India's pace of growth to accelerate in 2018-19, says RBI governor


New Delhi/Washington, Apr 22 (PTI): Asserting that the Indian economy turned in a resilient performance in 2017-18, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel has said the country's growth is expected to accelerate next fiscal. Patel was addressing the International Monetary Finance Committee in Washington on Saturday.

"The Indian economy turned in a resilient performance in 2017-18," Patel said.

Although the real GDP growth was moderated to 6.6 per cent from 7.1 per cent a year ago, there was a strong rebound in the second half of the year on the back of a turnaround in investment demand, he said.

This was supported by an acceleration in manufacturing, rising sales growth, a pick-up in capacity utilisation, strong activity in the services sector and a record agricultural harvest, the RBI governor added.

"Several factors are expected to help accelerate the pace of growth in 2018-19. There are now clearer signs that the revival in investment activity will be sustained," he said. Global demand has been improving, which should encourage exports and boost fresh investments, Patel said, adding that on the whole, real GDP growth was expected to expand at 7.4 per cent in 2018-19, with risks evenly balanced.

In his address, Patel said since November 2016, headline consumer price inflation had generally remained below the medium-term target of four per cent. An unusual spike in vegetables prices pushed up inflation to a recent peak of 5.2 per cent in December, but it eased in subsequent months to reach 4.3 per cent in March, he said.

Patel said several factors were likely to influence the inflation outlook, including a possible moderation in food prices if the monsoon turned out to be normal and was supported by an effective food supply management.

"Countervailing this, upside risks emanate from the distinct hardening bias in crude oil prices, the steady firming up of inflation excluding food and fuel mirroring pick up in domestic demand, and spillovers from financial volatility as markets re-price the path of monetary policy normalisation by systemic central banks," he said.

Noting that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, the monetary policy rate was kept unchanged at 6.0 per cent in April 2018 with a neutral stance, Patel said.

Asserting that the government is committed to fiscal prudence, the RBI governor said aided by buoyancy in tax revenues and rationalisation of subsidies, the gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of the central government has been steadily brought down since 2013-14 to 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2017-18 without compromising on public investment requirements and social sector spending.

The GFD is budgeted lower at 3.3 per cent in 2018-19, he said. The government has accepted a debt rule that will bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 40 per cent over a period of time by 2024-25.

Patel said the goods and services tax (GST), which was implemented from July 2017 has reformed the system of indirect taxes by simplifying payments and credits, and improving the efficiency of movement of goods across the country.

Automation of tax payments and 'team-based assessment with dynamic jurisdiction' without direct interface with tax payers has improved overall efficiency and transparency of revenue administration, he said. Patel said with the pace of import growth relative to that of exports, the current account deficit (CAD) expanded from 0.7 per cent in 2016-17 to 1.9 per cent for the first nine months of 2017-18. External financing conditions remained comfortable, boosted mainly by robust inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), he said.

The UNCTAD's survey of multinational enterprises ranked India as the third most favoured destination for FDI for 2017-19.

Reflecting these developments, India's foreign exchange reserves at USD 424 billion were equivalent of 11 months of imports, he added.

"India has persevered with structural reforms over a wide area ranging from a flexible inflation targeting framework for monetary policy; liberalisation of FDI flows; a unique identification (Aadhaar) backed direct benefit transfers; an insolvency and bankruptcy code; the GST; realty reforms; and a swathe of measures for improvement in the ease of doing business more generally," he said.

These factors have improved India's global ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business, Patel added.

  

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Comment on this article

  • SMR, Karkala

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    The ‘chowkidar’ of the people’s money finally broke his silence on the massive frauds convulsing India’s PSBs, but did so at a business meet, ensuring no questions would be asked.
    Daily headlines bring new disclosures and revelations on astronomical sums of money swindled from public sector banks, be it the Nirav Modi-Punjab National Bank scam or the Rotomac Scam. But amidst the deluge of words and opinions, one voice has been missing. India is waiting to hear from its Prime Minister and self-proclaimed chowkidar of the people’s treasury, about all these disturbing headlines.
    According to Reserve Bank of India’s data, PSU banks reported loan fraud cases worth Rs 61,260 crore over the last five years. With the recent Nirav Modi-PNB scam, the amount has now ballooned to over Rs 72,000 crore. And these are only the frauds that have been reported. The actual damage from defrauding PSU banks could well run into lakhs of crores. Something is clearly very rotten in the whole system of public sector bank loans.
    The biggest question on everyone’s mind is what was the RBI doing and how was this huge fraud conducted right under its nose? KC Chakrabarty, former RBI Deputy Governor and former chairman and managing director of PNB, alaimed that the total chunk of bad loans in the Indian banking sector, at this stage, is around Rs 17 lakh crore, much higher than what is reported by banks and estimated by the central bank and the government.
    The RBI had 100 per cent information that there is a problem with jewellery companies.the BJP govt in its arrogance believes that it can do whatever it wants and is not answerable to people.
    After 31 top defaulters flee India with 'bank loot', Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel should own up moral responsibility for the massive $1.8 billion scam/fraud allegedly committed by diamond retailer Nirav Modi and resign his post.
    Finally RBI Governor Urjit Patel break his niravata (silence) after he refused to speak for everything.
    JH

    DisAgree [2] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • flavian dsouza, BENGALURU

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    No data to back his claims ...this is fake in every form . RBI governor is gettting prepared for 2019 elections

    DisAgree [1] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Truth teller, Karnataka

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    The first thing RBI Governor has to do is concentrate his time and energy in finishing his job of counting demonitized currency!. Till then we cannot believe his Jootley inspired predictions!.

    DisAgree Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Chetan, Udupi

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Parroting Pradhan Sevak's dictates.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    We want to see Reality
    And not the Probability

    DisAgree [1] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Declan, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Whatever future promises achievements BJP or their caged parrots claim/make are never true. They just keep people's hopes up by fooling them with the use of lies and when they cannot fool people with lies anymore then they blame the past rule of the Congress party.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • HENRY MISQUITH, Bahrain

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    This is the first governor of RBI whom nobody respect.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse

  • gm, mlur

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    What was the speed in last 4 years?

    DisAgree [1] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse

  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Lo, aur ek Feku. This lie is dedicated to upcoming Karnataka polls.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Roshan, Mangaluru

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Firstly, when the governor can not accelerate the counting of banned notes, his talking of growth, simply means nothing to public. Its over a year now.

    Secondly, along with him, there are many foreign agencies talk of growth and they are optimistic of it. But why? Look around you will, the only place that is higher than UPA is Share Market. All black money, foreign institutions have put their bets there. Any sagging sentiments affect them very badly. So, speak positive and make more money, to carry the wealth out of India.

    Thirdly, if the same foreign institutions are soo sure of growth, why they are investing in businesses within India? They are not hesitant, they are absolutely reluctant.

    Finally, when one looks around, they will find, many people who are laid off and struggling because of it. There is no replacements for them. Further, there are crores of youth looking for any job anywhere public, private and abroad, but not finding anything happening that gives them some hope.

    Instead of these institutions like RBI works independently of Modi led BJP, like they did before, India could probably salvage from the kind of situation it is in - right now.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ahmed K. C., Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Baba RBI Governor's "bhavishya vani"

    DisAgree [3] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • sanith, Bajpe/Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Someone pressed the "play" button by mistake!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • Eric Coelho, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    This Idiot has still not finished counting of demonetized notes and says that 2018-19 will accelerate growth. He has reduced his position of Governor to a attender of BJP Govt at centre.

    DisAgree Agree [22] Reply Report Abuse

  • Salam, Mangaluru

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Accelerated ambani and adani property😂

    DisAgree Agree [28] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sanith, Bajpe/Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    At last Governor speaks! But whose voice??

    DisAgree [2] Agree [27] Reply Report Abuse

  • Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Dear RBI Governor,

    Will you please hand over the demonetised currency to Tirupati Temple, they will count and give you within 3 weeks. You will take it to count five years.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [31] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rakesh, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    RBI finished counting of Demonitised currency notes ?

    RBI Governor is a Gujarati Chela of Chaiwala FEKU.

    after one and half year after demonitisation they are not able to finish the counting of old notes and giving speech on growth rate increase.

    God pls save India from these useless guys who are only capable to take care Cow mother.!

    DisAgree [4] Agree [30] Reply Report Abuse

  • JACK, kudla

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    Trueeeee

    DisAgree [1] Agree [21] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 22 2018

    rbi governor is a tattu of chaiwala. nagpur press media, what a idea growth accelerated.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse


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