Rajan wins over Modi despite broad mistrust


New Delhi, June 1, Reuters: In late 2014, the knives were out for RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. Finance ministry officials were frustrated by his reluctance to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, and moves were afoot to ease him out of the job. Some were airing their reservations about Rajan's hawkish stance in the media.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened a meeting of senior finance ministry staff that December to hear their complaints, said a person who was present.

At the end, the leader delivered a stern message: do not indulge in a public spat with the central bank.

The moment marked a turning point in ties between the heads of the newly installed government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Since then, Modi and Rajan have developed a close working rapport, government officials and people close to the governor say, and that could be crucial to the $2 trillion economy.

With Modi's patronage, it is more likely the government will reappoint Rajan, whose three-year term expires in September, should he wish to stay on, the sources said.

That would allow him to try to revive India's banking sector that has been smothered by distressed debt, which, in turn, is choking off economic recovery.

"Rajan will get another term and he will accept it," said Arvind Mayaram, India's former finance secretary who Rajan worked with closely first as the government's chief economic adviser and then as RBI governor. "He is well entrenched in India's political economy."

A top government official said the decision rests with Modi and the leader has not yet said what he wants to do. Modi recently told The Wall Street Journal that Rajan's reappointment would come up only in September.

The official, speaking anonymously because he was not authorised to discuss the matter with the press, added that the prime minister was "proud" of the RBI governor and that a campaign against Rajan would not affect Modi's decision.

The prime minister's office and finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Rajan, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, has not disclosed his plans, and did not respond to requests for comment for this article.

Modi's Support Is Key

Modi's support would be important if the 53-year-old RBI chief is to get the big state banking sector to complete a cleanup of massive debts and force defaulters to pay up.

Banks making provisions for bad debt are reluctant to issue new loans, leading to criticism within the sector and complaints from smaller businesses and politicians.

Patronage from above will also help shield Rajan from lingering opposition within the ruling nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a man known for his straight talking and willingness to question government policy and achievements.

As the personal understanding between Rajan and Modi appears to grow, some officials still resent him.

The fact that Rajan was appointed by the previous Congress government did not help him win friends in Modi's BJP, and the former University of Chicago professor has been viewed by some with suspicion as a product of the West, not India.

BJP parliamentarian and economist Subramanian Swamy, one of those leading a campaign to remove Rajan, recently accused him of "wilfully and deliberately wrecking the Indian economy."

The governor's penchant for blunt commentary raises hackles. Rajan's appeal for tolerance late last year was perceived to be a veiled criticism of the government for appealing to the Hindu majority at the expense of minority communities, prompting Swamy to rebuke him for speaking like a "grandfather".

Rajan recently compared India's fast-growing economy to a "one-eyed king in the land of the blind". Trade Minister Nirmala Sitharaman publicly censured his comments.

Bonhomie

The first signs of growing bonhomie between Modi and Rajan came early last year, when Modi called Rajan the "best teacher" for explaining complex economic issues to him.

Days later, the governor returned the compliment, saying the teaching went both ways.

The prime minister backed Rajan in the monetary policy panel's composition and blocking moves to strip the RBI's authority to regulate government bonds and manage public debt.

Modi's office also directed the finance ministry to pursue only those policies where there was agreement with the central bank, a former finance ministry official said.

The governor frequently visits New Delhi to meet Modi, a government official with direct knowledge said. But their meetings are mostly kept away from the public gaze.

Modi's office declined a request to disclose the number and details of the meetings, saying the information relates to "economic interest of the state".

Rajan had help from junior finance minister Jayant Sinha, a college friend and one of the more influential economic voices in the Modi government.

At the December meeting, Sinha told the attendees that the clashes were undermining the government's credibility, the person present said.

A government source said that Sinha also facilitated meetings between Rajan and Modi to broker a compromise on thorny issues such as the composition of the new monetary panel. Sinha did not respond to a request for comment.

Learning On The Job

Rajan may prove a more effective governor second time around if he gets the chance, say some RBI insiders and economists.

Although he fended off a market attack on the rupee early in his tenure, bankers, economists and his former colleagues said he was relatively slow to grasp how liquidity flows through the economy and how to fine tune it to meet his primary policy goal of taming inflation.

Under Rajan, the RBI forced banks to source limited short-term funds from cash-for-bond auctions rather than getting unlimited funds from the central bank at a fixed rate.

Banks complained the new system was forcing up costs and hampering the transmission of rate cuts to the real economy, said several bankers privy to the discussions with the RBI.

At first, Rajan publicly dismissed their concerns as "nonsense". It was only after 16 months of pleading by banks that he finally revamped the RBI's liquidity management in April, the bankers said.

A second stint is likely to see a more accomplished operator as the RBI tackles bank debt, tries to develop the bond market as a viable source of funding for companies and switches to a Western-style approach to decision making.

A new monetary policy panel will be formed later this year to set interest rates, something Rajan favoured to make the RBI more independent and introduce transparency to the process.

In a key victory for Rajan, draft legislation from the finance ministry that would have allowed the government to appoint more than half of the panel's members was amended to split it evenly between government and RBI nominees.

Rajan will get the casting vote in the case of a 3-3 split. Those who have worked with Rajan said his people skills and powers of persuasion will give him a big say on setting rates.

"Why Rock The Boat?"

Rajan continues to be lionised by foreign investors whose funds are needed to keep the Indian economy motoring ahead.

That was key in convincing Modi to defend him, while two off-cycle interest rate cuts in January and March last year also acted as a balm, a senior minister in the federal cabinet said.

The country has been ravaged by drought in the last two years and not enough jobs are being created to accommodate its rapidly expanding workforce, but India is the world's fastest growing major economy and inflation is half what it was in 2013.

"The combination of Modi, (Finance Minister Arun) Jaitley and Rajan are delivering on the macro front," said Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who knows Rajan well. "I really don't see any reason to rock the boat."

  

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Comment on this article

  • Vincent Rodrigues, Frazer Town,B'lore

    Fri, Jun 03 2016

    Good development and right decision indeed.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • ca girishkk, m'lore/dxb

    Thu, Jun 02 2016

    Good development...,
    However, our hope to see as RBI governor for the second term is not become FEKU.

    Jai Ho..,

    DisAgree [1] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • B Prakash Kamath, Mannagudda,

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    JFG knows only Modi bashing. Just go thr all his comments and c whether any time he has responded with unbiased views. today he is ruled by Chaiwala and if he is not comfortable with it he has to find a way out. Not just blabber

    DisAgree [4] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore

    Thu, Jun 02 2016

    Dear B Prakash Kamath, Mannagudda
    I quote yours JFG knows only Modi bashing. Just go thr all his comments and c whether any time he has responded with unbiased views. today he is ruled by Chaiwala and if he is not comfortable with it he has to find a way out. Not just blabber Unquote.

    I quote my one comment:
    Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore
    Tuesday, May 31, 2016

    Dear R.Bhandarkar, Mangaluru,

    Congress is a Chour.
    BJP'S ARE PAVITHR CHOURS.
    So far Rahul Gandhi is honest and speaks straight forward.

    Comment on this Article Report Abuse
    Agree [27] Disagree [14]

    Unquote.


    Finally, have pointed out the Bhakts bashing and abusing Soniaji, Rahulji, Dr. Manmohan singhji, Siddharamaiah.

    Now don’t tell me I am calling him chaaiwaala. I never keep any any name to him. All the names which I specified are from themselves. Chaaiwaala becoming Prime minister was at chaai pe churcha on public kurcha.
    People call him Feku. Did you recognize him a Feku or no?
    How many evidences you need for his blah, blah, blabbering and making feku.

    Blind Bhakts like you will never open your eyes to the truth.

    DisAgree Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore

    Thu, Jun 02 2016

    Dear B Prakash Kamath, Mannagudda,

    You will never admit presently we have a Cow Government's Cattle Class Governance from RSS

    And the chaaiwaala P.M., is on luxurious pleasure trips around the world on tax paid money.

    BLIND BHAKTS WILL NEVER ACCEPT TRUTH.

    DisAgree Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Prakash Mascarenhas, Uppinangady / Dubai

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    I would be more happy if Subramanyam Swamy becomes the RBI Governor, he will make $1=Rs10 instead of Rs.67/dollar.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alwyn Crasta, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    It's always better to back a winning horse. As the Indian economy is seeing signs of picking up, there is absolutely no need to upset the applecart.

    Rajan certainly is one of the most learned/highly accomplished and respected economists in the entire world, and continuity will certainly lend solidity to India's banking system as well as its economy.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • sid, mangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Modi Gi is a great leader and knows who are genuine and who are bakwas for the countrys development . Wish the opposition learnt few lessons from the PM

    DisAgree [29] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • A. S. Mathew, U.S.A.

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Mr. Modi took the right decision giving a slap to the constantly nagging Subramanium Swamy.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [44] Reply Report Abuse

  • arm, ksa

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Ab Swamji Ka Pravachan Kau Sunega.

    DisAgree [8] Agree [19] Reply Report Abuse

  • CONRAD JOHN TAURO, SHIRVA/UDUPI/DUBAI

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Original wins...

    DisAgree [7] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dev Kumar, Mangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    When teacher is good...students bound to learn.
    It's what happened. Earlier government inspite of having eminent economists like Montek Singh Ahuliwal, Chidhbaram and MMS itself not able to advise correctly. It's how now things moving smoothly...making base for future.

    DisAgree [22] Agree [24] Reply Report Abuse

  • Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Dear Dev Kumar, Mangalore,

    DO YOU KNOW THE TERM RECESSION.

    AND THE COW GOVERNMENT IS REAPING WHAT WAS SOWN AND DR. MANMOHAN SINGHJI WAS INDIA'S CROWN.

    CHAAIWAALA COULDN'T CATCH UP CHEAP CRUDE OIL PRICES.

    RAGHURAM RAJAN WAS THE OF UPA.

    ALL THE POLICES OF THE HUMAN CONGRESS GOVERNMENT WERE ADOPTED BY THE ANIMAL COW GOVERNMENT.

    DisAgree [26] Agree [40] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dev Kumar, Mangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Dear Mr.Joseph..
    Don't know the term recession.
    Can you able to teach same in detail and that also in pyramid way..!!!
    I glad to learn the same.
    Your reply should not be more than 1000 words...and less than 850 words..!!

    DisAgree [26] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • arm, ksa

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Dev Sab,
    Muje Mouka Diji Ye Samjane Ka. Jab Chaddi ke Jeb me Chead Ho tho Soch leneka ke Recession Chal Raha Hai. Jeb me Paisa Dalo Tho Patha Hi Nahi Chalta Kidar Ja Raha Hai.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [5] Report Abuse

  • Joseph F. Gonsalves, Bannur, Puttur / Mangalore

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    RAGHURAM RAJAN WAS CHOSEN BY THE UPA GOVERNMENT. SUBRAMANYA SWAMY IS ONLY CRYING AMBAAAA.....

    DisAgree [7] Agree [30] Reply Report Abuse

  • A. S. Mathew, U.S.A.

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    Another hidden problem of the current Government is the lack of qualified candidate for the Ministerial posts in their own party especially the job as the Governor of the RBI, very hard to find a candidate. The BJP Government is interested to replace some Ministers but they have stated repeatedly the lack of potential candidates. When high priority is given to the exclusive RSS affiliated candidates, that is too hard to locate.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [11] Report Abuse

  • pircki, panchanabettu

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    we are not bothered about your concept but don't insult the animals

    DisAgree [22] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Aman, Udupi

    Wed, Jun 01 2016

    If something works, its because of the current government
    If its not working then it is previous governments fault..

    DisAgree [9] Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse


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