India's Q2 GDP growth up at 6.3%, reverses 5 quarters' slump


New Delhi, Nov 30 (IANS): Breaking a five-quarters' slump, a rise in the manufacturing sector's output pushed India's growth rate higher to 6.3 per cent during the second quarter of 2017-18, official data showed on Thursday, even as industry hailed the signs of economic recovery and the government said the twin impact of demonetisation and GST "are behind us".

On a sequential basis, India's GDP growth for Q2 of the current fiscal went up to 6.3 per cent, from 5.7 per cent reported during the first quarter of 2017-18.

According to data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the GDP for Q2 stood at Rs 31.66 lakh crore, or a growth of 6.3 per cent. India's GDP had grown at 7.2 per cent in the corresponding quarter last year.

On gross value added (GVA) basis, which includes taxes but excludes subsidies, India had registered a growth of 6.1 per cent during the quarter in consideration over the corresponding quarter last year, the CSO said. The GVA during the first quarter ending June came in at a lower 5.6 per cent.

"The economic activities which registered growth of over 6 per cent in Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are 'manufacturing', 'electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services' and 'trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting'," said the document on the estimates of GDP for the Q2 of 2017-18.

"The growth in the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying', 'construction', 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services' and 'public administration, defence and other services' is estimated to be 1.7 per cent, 5.5 per cent, 2.6 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, during this period," it said.

Briefing reporters following the release of the data, Chief Statistician T.C.A. Anant said the reversal of the declining growth trend earlier is an encouraging signal.

"The latest GDP decline started in the fourth quarter of 2015-16. So the Q2 GDP coming in at 6.3 per cent, as compared to 7.2 per cent last year, is quite encouraging at this point," he said.

Anant said the reversal of the previous declining trend was mainly on account of a jump in manufacturing activity during the second quarter, with GVA growing at 7 per cent, as compared to the measly growth of 1.2 per cent in the previous quarter.

Agriculture GDP during the quarter in question at 1.7 per cent registered lower growth.

"Agriculture in the quarter was held up by the non-crop segments, because crop production has done just a little bit poorly," Anant said.

"Last year was very good because of the monsoons, although this year crop production is better than the five-year average," he added.

The Chief Statistician also said the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July had introduced a number of uncertainties in the GVA calculations for the second quarter, and the revised estimates could show up higher indirect tax collections once the final GST figures come in.

"GST has brought in a number of uncertainties because of tax for the period not being paid on time. In fact, the government has extended the deadlines for filing GST returns, so the tax data for the relevant period is still coming in," he said.

Commenting on the GDP numbers, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told reporters here that they showed that the impact of the two major structural reforms - demonetisation and GST - "are behind us".

"The most significant aspect of the quarter's reversal in GDP decline is that this has been impacted by growth in manufacturing.

"Also the figure for fixed capital formation means that actually investments are moving up," he added.

India Inc. said the rise in the GDP numbers showed signs of economic recovery.

"Growth numbers are in sync with the expectations and re-affirm that signs of recovery are in sight," said Ficci President Pankaj Patel.

He said that the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy review next week "will be a perfect timing to give another shot to boost the sentiment".

Industry chamber CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee described it as a "great confidence booster".

"What is encouraging is that manufacturing has emerged as a key driver of growth indicating that firms have started restocking and recovery is taking shape. Gross fixed capital formation has also picked up from last year's lacklustre pace," he said.

According to Anis Chakravarty, Lead Economist, Deloitte India, the latest set of numbers showed improved performance of manufacturing that could have possibly been affected by the GST implementation.

"High frequency indicators such as auto sales suggest that demand has recovered since then and manufacturing could see better numbers in the quarters ahead," he said.

  

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Comment on this article

  • Vincent Rodrigues, Bengaluru/Katapadi

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Good news to India if the figures are genuine without any window dressing

    DisAgree [3] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Even considering this to be true and not yet another Jumla, the loss in GDP so far due to two major blunders of the century amounts to over 2 lakh crores which is irrecoverable. As a result, unemployment rate has increased exponentially, medium and small scale businesses have incurred heavy losses, many have been forced to pull the shutters as well. Only Reliance Industries profits have increased by 67%.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • sampath, India

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Good news for india is considered always bad news for slaves....

    DisAgree [2] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ravi C, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    GDP 7.3 was very good news. Was it really good news for Bhakths?

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • sense_Shetty, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Results of the Modi's medicine are out in the open ..by 2019 elections India will be growing at 7 to 8 percent which will be largely due growth in manufacturing ,agri products and tourism due to overall improvement in Road infrastructure.
    However ..the credit also goes to Manmohan for aadhar revolution. But Modi has really maximised its utilization and for benefit of people ..I think the govt can further save money upto 2 lakh crores by switching to digital voting during elections.. which will be a major game changer. Modi knows the art of synchronizing -People ,process and technology.

    DisAgree [1] Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    After May 2014, the categorization of news as True or Jumla makes more sense than Good or Bad.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anand, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Good for the country if the news is genuine! otherwise one more lie! how does it matter. People are used to it.

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • moshu, mangaluru

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    The figurs comming to convince voters of Gujarat. The bench of analysts are all the way from the central govt. Imagine the motive behind all. The ground reality showing different statisticts which is common man's concern yet to be resolved. The GDP figure doesnt makes any difference infact the ground reality is that the rising prices of commodities and services which have a higher weight in the consumption basket of middle class households.

    DisAgree Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sampath, India

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Start breathing exercise now itself..it will be helpful for many .....

    DisAgree [2] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    GDP growth was 7.3% in 2014.
    Why all this Song & Dance now at 6.3% ...

    DisAgree [7] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • ca girishkk, m'lore/dxb

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Just to boost confidence among people of Hindustan...,
    Just ask any traders ..., business down more than 50% every where..., union govt claim is a highly doubtful...!!!!
    Private investment is totally dried up..., Make in Hindustan is not happening..., all major Bank's officials kept their hands on their head & looking at the sky....!!!!
    Let us hope that things will change for the better..., all economists..., bankers..., big reputed businessmen & experts are probably asked to give positive statement.

    jh
    jai hind..,

    DisAgree [3] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sampath, India

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    People of hindu stan are confident enough...
    When you put your words be specific with some numbers...dont spread fake news...

    DisAgree [5] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • mahesh, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    Good that the turnaround has started.
    Only feel bad to all those pessimists who don't mind India failing as long as Modi fails.
    Dont tell me the numbers are fudged. If it was so, then the previuos lower numbers could also have been fudged.
    Dont tell me its luck, then the previuos lower numbers should also be attributed to the same.
    If as some say, Modi was responsible for the slowdown of the economy, then the turnaround also should be credited to him.
    Show some grace.

    DisAgree [6] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • ABD, LOS ANGELES

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    THIS IS WHY WORLD ADMIRES NARENDRA MODIJI

    DisAgree [12] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ravi C, Mangalore

    Fri, Dec 01 2017

    When it was 7.3, what was world doing?

    6.3 is still below compared to previous numbers. So instead of jumping to any conclusion, let's hope for the better economy in coming quarters..

    DisAgree [2] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    fake g.d.p. election stunt. nobody believes nagpur press news.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anirudh P, Bengaluru

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    This proves that all these days so called Congress economists were unnecessarily spreading lies and misguided people. 😈

    These dumb experts were predicting doomsday 😂😂😂😂😂😂

    It's time, people should start ignoring congress as they have lost their credibility.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • JK, Udupi

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    Where is Yeshwant Sinha, Chidambaram and Mute Singh now?. Do they really understand economics?, anyway pappu is zero on economics.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jeevan, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    Ambanis behind this for election

    DisAgree [1] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vivian Rodrigues, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    What timing! Just before crucial elections the mouthpieces are bribed or coerced into making pro government statements. Typical of FEKU's dictatorship.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Desi Jawan, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    Harvard graduate Maunmohan, Chiddu, Siddu, Diggy, Symbol, Koily, Bascar...... all will call this number as fake. For them message from waitress madam is what goes in brains.

    It is burnol and mulam massage time CONgies.

    DisAgree [10] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Swamy, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    CSO couldn't put a little higher number instead of only 6.3% as the elections are just around the corner????. Is BJP saying anything about the jobs which is a counter indication of growth and GDP without which it is just a Jumla number.

    DisAgree Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Thu, Nov 30 2017

    2014 GDP was at 7.3 % ...

    DisAgree [5] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse


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