New Delhi, Apr 1 (IBN) : Karnataka is providing some southern comfort to the Congress. The ruling Congress has maintained a big lead over the main rival BJP in the state. According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti-The Week national election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar the Congress will emerge victorious in 12-18 seats, BJP 7-13 while others including JDS will win 1-4. Interestingly AAP will fail to open their account as per the survey in the state which has 28 seats.

The Congress is projected to get 46 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha elections. It has gained 4 per cent votes since February. The BJP has also gained 4 per cent since February. It is expected to get 36 per cent votes. The JDS is likely to get just 12 per cent votes. It has lost 6 per cent votes since February. The AAP and the others are expected to get 1 per cent and 5 per cent votes respectively.

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's AHINDA (Minorities, OBCs and Dalits) campaign seems to be working in favour of the Congress. The Congress is getting most of its support from backward sections and minorities while BJP is getting most of its support from the upper and dominant castes.

Karnataka tracker: Congress to win 12-18 seats, BJP 7-13, others 1-4

The Congress is getting most of its support from backward sections, minorities while BJP from the upper and dominant castes.

While 63 per cent respondents among the upper castes are favouring the BJP, only 28 per cent of them are favouring the Congress. Among the Lingayats 59 per cent are backing the BJP, 28 per cent are backing the Congress and 13 per cent are with the JDS. Even among the Vokkaligas, 37 per cent are with the BJP, 28 per cent are with the Congress and 32 per cent are with the JDS.

Among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), 53 per cent are with the Congress, 30 per cent are with the BJP and 13 per cent are with the JDS. Among the Dalits, 55 per cent are backing the Congress, 19 per cent are with the BJP and 9 per cent are with the JDS.

Among the Muslims, 87 per cent are with the Congress, 10 per cent are with the BJP and 3 per cent are with the JDS. Among the Scheduled Tribes (STs) 52 per cent are with the Congress, 44 per cent are with the BJP and 4 per cent are with the JDS.

Interestingly, there is a clear a gender divide among the voters. While the Congress gets most of its support from the women, the BJP gets it from men. While 51 per cent women respondents prefer the Congress, 33 per cent prefer the BJP. 41 per cent men back the Congress and 39 per cent men back the BJP.

Region-wise break-up

In Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the Congress is way ahead of others. In Lingayat dominated Mumbai-Karnataka region, there is a neck and neck fight between Congress and BJP. In Central Karnataka region, the BJP is ahead of the Congress. In Southern Karnataka region (Dakshina Kannada) , the Congress is leading ahead of the BJP. In Bangalore, Congress is ahead of all others.

Not many takers for Yeddyurappa

Contrary to popular beliefs, most people oppose former Karnataka CM BS Yeddyurappa's re-entry into the BJP including many traditional BJP supporters. The only region where there is huge support for it is Central Karnataka, where Yeddyurappa hails from. Overall 54 per cent are opposing his re-entry into the BJP and 35 per cent are supporting it. Among the BJP supporters, 50 per cent are backing it and 45 per cent are opposing it.

Like most other states, the performance of the state government matters more than the performance of the Centre, when it comes to voting. There is a high net satisfaction levels with both State and Central government's performance. 57 per cent respondents are satisfied with the Congress government in Karnataka and 33 per cent are satisfied with the UPA government at the Centre.

Anti-incumbency sentiment against the UPA seems to have weakened somewhat in Karnataka. 38 per cent feel that the UPA should get another chance and 43 per cent say no.

Most people oppose the BSR Congress's merger with the BJP including many traditional BJP supporters; there is opposition to the move even in Hyderabad Karnataka where BSR Congress has had a presence. 52 per cent are opposing it and 31 per cent are supporting it.