Bangalore: Lok Sabha election survey - 14 seats to Congress, 12 to BJP in state

Daijiworld Media Network – Bangalore (SP)

Bangalore, Feb 20: A survey conducted by a prominent Kannada daily in association with C fore has predicted that the voters of Karnataka will not be totally swept off their feet by Modi wave, unlike some other states. As per the calculations made based on opinions  put together under this survey, the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state are expected be shared by the three major political parties, Congress (14), BJP (12), and JD(S) (2).

If the prediction made by this survey comes true, Congress will gain seven seats as compared to the previous Lok Sabha election, at the cost of BJP.

In the previous Lok Sabha election, the voters of Karnataka had not supported the party that came to power at the centre, and this trend is likely to continue this time too. Even though the number of total votes secured by the Congress is likely to rise by four percent this time as compared to the recent assembly election, Modi wave is likely to rejuvenate the BJP, which had registered pathetic performance in the assembly election, to some extent. 

It is being analyzed that the voters, in spite of having been frustrated at the lackadaisical performance of the union government, have continued to favour Congress because of the internal bickering within the BJP. Congress will possibly wrest back its prominence in Old Mysore and Hyderabad Karnataka regions of the state as per the survey, which says that the Congress is likely to win 11 out of the 14 seats. The fact that Siddaramaiah is the chief minister, and Hyderabad Karnataka has been covered under section 371J, are likely to score major points for the Congress. JD(S) will have to be content with only a token presence, as the survey has given it an edge only in Hassan and Tumkur constituencies.

The BJP, which suffered an ignominious defeat in the assembly election because of parting of ways with Yeddyurappa last time, is expected to perform well in Bangalore, Mumbai-Karnataka, and central Karnataka regions. Out of the three seats it won from the state capital last time, BJP is predicted to retain two. BJP is set to lose Bangalore (central), Bellary, Udupi-Chikmagalur, Bidar, Raichur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga and Tumkur constituencies, as the voters are unhappy with the functioning of current incumbents, the survey analyses.

JD(S) and Aam Aadmi Party are not expected to make any major mark in the electoral scenario.  

On religion and caste-based calculations, minorities, backward classes, and dalits are likely to support the Congress, as Siddaramaiah is projected as their hope. Vokkaliga votes will go to BJP wherever JD(S) does not have strong footing. A large number of voters surveyed felt that Congress can improve its chances in the election by giving the post of deputy chief minister to Dr Parameshwar. However, more people have preferred Narendra Modi to become the prime minister, as compared to Rahul Gandhi, with only a miniscule percentage choosing Arvind Kejriwal.

The fact that there is still time for election, and the likelihood of the voting pattern undergoing volatile changes at the last minute as observed in previous election, as well as the slender difference in votes predicted in some of the constituencies, can still change the equations in some of the constituencies where the tussle is tough and candidates fielded by the three major parties are strong.