Who will be the Next UP CM? Ramayana!
By Ayush Prasad
Source: School friend who is from the same family.
Mar 8: There is an old story about Nawabs from Lucknow. Two Nawabs met at the door of a train compartment. Respectfully, each requested the other to board the train first and in the process both missed the train. Though the Nawabs have gone, Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav seem to be stuck in the same old 'pehle aap' culture when it comes to occupying the Chief Minister's post. But what seems is not what it is. Highly placed reliable sources have informed that the story playing out is in fact much older; it is the epic - Ramayana.
The Background
Mulayam Singh Yadav was born to a farmer, Sudhar Singh, who had encouraged him to become a wrestler. He was then spotted during a wrestling match by a local leader Nathu Singh, who encouraged him to join politics. Inspired by the socialist ideologies of Ram Manohar Lohia, Mulayam Singh Yadav rose to great prominence in the post Madal era and became the Chief Minister thrice, each time by questionable political alliances and splitting opposition parties.
He founded the Samajwadi Party in October 1992 and over the years it has become a family controlled institution. Though two of his brothers (one of them an ex-serviceman) are farmers in his native village of Safai; one brother and cousin are prominent leaders of the party. It also has heavyweights, such as Azam Khan, who guarantee him critical support of the Muslim community. He was also very close friends with socialite Amar Singh.
Mulayam Singh Yadav has married twice. His first wife and the mother of his son, Akhilesh Yadav passed away several years ago. Hence, Akhilesh was raised by his maternal grandmother. In 1999, Mulayam had strongly objected to Akhilesh's marriage to a girl of another caste, Dimple Singh.
Prateek Yadav, his 29 year old son from his second wife, Sadhana Gupta, has not yet joined active politics.
How it Unfolded
After the 2009 elections, Samjawadi Party's seats in the Lok Sabha came down from 35 MPs to 22 MPs. The result was criticized as a disaster. After the results, Mulayam Singh Yadav appointed, Akhilesh Yadav, a 3rd time MP, as UP State President of the Samajwadi Party.
Akhilesh Yadav had won 2 from constituencies in the Lok Sabha election and vacated the seat of Ferozabad. Going against the wishes of his uncles and other leaders, Akhilesh nominated his wife as the party's candidate for the bye-election. Raj Babbar, due to Rahul Gandhi's extensive campaign, defeated her. This lead to severe critisim and there were calls to remove him from the State President-ship. But his father sided with him and i lead to the famous break-up in friendship between Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Since then, as Mulayam Singh Yadav's health has dipped, Akhilesh began calling the shots in Uttar Pradesh. Mulayam Singh, who once depended on Amar Singh, now became dependent on his son who re-invented the party's vision and changed its image. Akhilesh undertook several yatras and almost single handed campaigned across the state. He selected most of the candidates and even took difficult decisions of removing influential dons.
Shocked by Success
In the 2002 UP Assembly Elections, all caste-religious equations had worked in Samajwadi Party's favour and super-stars such as Amitabh Bachchan had campaigned for it, it had managed to win 143 seats . Most party insiders felt that in this election, it would get a maximum of 160 seats and Congress will win 70-80 seats. They had planned to form a coalition government with Congress in Uttar Pradesh.
The Union Government has to increase fuel prices by over 7-8% and take tough decisions during budget to manage the fiscal deficit. It is widely expected that 18 MPs of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) lead by populist Mamta Banerjee will withdraw support from UPA-II coalition. Hence, Samajwadi Party could replace it with its 22 Lok Sabha MPs. Most Congressmen would be happy, as Mamta Banerjee has become an unpopular CM in only 9 months. They could chart a future independent of her. But the thumping majority in UP Elections has rattled all.
Most of the newly elected MLAs acknowledge that the mandate is for the "New" Samajwadi Party. Though Mulayam Singh is widely respected, this mandate is for a fresh face who offers hope of a better day. The mandate has transcends caste-religious divides and most young people have voted for them.
The Ramayana
Chief Minister's post is physically taxing - one is expected to meet a lot of people and attend several functions everyday. It also has the stress and pressure of managing the aspirations of hundreds of people. With his failing health, Mulayam Singh Yadav is not said to be very keen to take up the top job, but then will his family allow him to?
Mulayam Singh's situation is similar to that of Dasharata. His second wife has a young son and may like him to inherit a rightful share of political legacy. Mulayam's brothers are in their late 50s (prime time for politics) and have been in politics for a time. If they accept a 38 year old Akhilesh as their leader, it stagnates their political career. They also have young sons. Sadhana Gupta, Mulayam's wife, has been quoted by the press firmly stating that only her husband is the CM candidate of the party.
Akhilesh Yadav has shown political maturity by sharing the credit and not displaying any ambitions. He has also defended Rahul Gandhi by stating that victories and defeats are part of the game.
Possible Solutions
Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav met Uttar Pradesh Governor, B L Joshi and have requested for over 3-4 days the candidate for Chief Minister. During this period, the entire Yadav family is going to their native village of Safai to celebrate Holi and discuss this issue. Keeping the family united would be a important so that it does not bitter the sweetness of success.
They are also waiting for the oil prices to rise so that it creates vacancies in the Union Government. Mulayam's brothers could be placated with Ministries in the Union Government. The Railway Portfolio could go to either father or son. But, the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is said to be concerned, as the battered image of his Government would be harmed further, if the Railway Minister (a TMC MP) resigns just before the Railway budget, for a populist cause- such as not increasing the Passenger fares.
The other alternative is that the Tamil Nadu (previous Govt) or Punjab model could be followed, where an old father is the Chief Minister and his young son is the Deputy Chief Minister. This would bring old experience and young energy together.
These days, even success could become a huge problem.