By Girish Linganna
Mar 4: Russia, previously a dominant player in the space industry, has significantly diminished in stature.
Following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the nation experienced a drastic 90% reduction in satellite launch orders from Europe and other regions. This decline has positioned the United States as the unrivaled leader in space, while smaller contenders such as India and China are seeking to enhance their roles in the space sector, capitalizing on Russia's loss.
Previously, European nations depended on Russia's Soyuz spacecraft for launching satellites, but they started to avoid this service following the invasion of Ukraine. Based on information gathered by an American astrophysicist, Russia conducted 35 satellite launches for the UK and various other countries in 2021. However, this figure plummeted to just two in 2022, with a slight increase to three in the subsequent year.
Last year, Sweden established the first satellite launch facility in Europe within the Arctic city of Esrange, situated roughly 1,000 kilometers north of Stockholm, with plans for its inaugural rocket launch set for 2025. "Securing versatile options for orbital space transport has emerged as a crucial aspect for national security and defense," stated Philip Pahlsson, the vice president for strategy and innovation at the Swedish Space Corporation, a state-owned entity.
The decline of Russia as a space power is evident in several setbacks. Since 2022, Russian spacecraft designated for cargo and crew missions to the International Space Station have encountered coolant leaks. In addition, Russia's inaugural moon mission in over five decades ended disastrously in 2023 when its unmanned lunar lander failed and crashed into the moon.
Financial struggles have compounded Russia's space challenges. Roscosmos, the country's space agency, saw its revenue drop from 32.3 billion rubles in 2018 to 10.5 billion rubles ($113.7 million) in 2021. The financial woes have deepened as the demand for Russia's satellite launch services has significantly decreased, largely due to the fallout from the invasion of Ukraine, impacting a critical source of income.
Several nations are stepping in to fill the gap left by Russia. In 2023, India significantly increased its satellite launch services for international clients, launching 46 satellites, which is a threefold increase from 2021. According to Kazuaki Shimotomai, a director at PwC Consulting, India's competitive advantage lies in its affordability. While China's yearly satellite launches for overseas customers usually remain under 10, the nation has committed to establishing itself as a significant player in the space sector reported Nikkei Asia media house.
The significance of space beyond military purposes is on the rise. SpaceX, established by billionaire Elon Musk, has almost monopolized the market for communications satellites, reinforcing the U.S.'s status as the dominant space superpower.
Euroconsult forecasts that the worldwide market for space-related activities, excluding human spaceflight, is expected to expand from $12.2 billion in 2023 to $15.8 billion by 2032. The space consultancy firm also predicts a notable scarcity of rockets in the coming decade due to increasing competition as reported by the media house.
The construction of launch sites is not limited to European nations; globally, there are about 100 launch site projects currently in planning stages.
Japan operates two launch facilities, with one located on the volcanic island of Tanegashima, positioned between the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, and the other in Uchinoura, within Kagoshima prefecture, close to the southernmost point of the nation's main islands. Given their engagement with governmental initiatives, these sites do not have the capacity to accommodate private sector launches. Consequently, all 34 of Japan's commercial satellites currently in space were launched aboard rockets from outside the country.
Despite challenges such as limited launch capabilities and the complexities and delays often associated with contracting third-party launch services, Japan has not been quick to escalate its efforts in establishing more launch sites.
However, Japan's advanced technology and strong entrepreneurial culture are favorable for the development of its space sector. On February 17, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) achieved a significant milestone with the successful launch of its new H3 rocket. Additionally, Space One, an emerging company specializing in the development of small rockets, is planning to debut its initial launch in March from its "space port" located in Wakayama prefecture in western Japan.
On February 6, the Japanese government unveiled a strategy aiming to enable the public and private sectors to conduct up to 30 rocket launches annually by the mid-2030s. Achieving this goal will be challenging, given that Japan completed just two launches in the previous year.
Shinichi Nakasuka, a University of Tokyo professor specializing in astronautics, emphasized that for Japan to realize its space ambitions, the government needs to actively support private space ventures. This involves offering innovative ideas and tangible assistance in the development of sophisticated, smaller rockets.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is in the process of constructing its second spaceport in Kulasekarapattinam, Tamil Nadu, covering an area of 2,233 acres. This new facility is intended to support the operations of the already existing spaceport in Sriharikota. It is expected to be operational in next 2 years.
(The author Girish Linganna of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach out to him at:
girishlinganna@gmail.com)