New Delhi, Nov 4 (IANS): Depending on which way you look at it, the October 7 attack carried out by the military wing of Hamas, dubbed the “Al Aqsa Tsunami”, has either permanently destroyed the Palestinian national movement or given it new life.
Fatah, the main pillar of the Palestinian national movement within the Palestine Liberation Organization, has been politically crushed and seen sagging popularity in recent years, which has given a boost to Hamas, founded in 1987, Al Monitor reported.
The military success of Hamas’ recent deadly attacks shocked Israel, the region and the world, bringing to centre stage the worst images of terrorism that many Palestinians have been trying very hard to overcome.
Israel’s harsh response in the Gaza Strip, however, has now tempered any early Israeli public relations gains. Increasingly, global decision-makers are now focusing on “day after the war” scenarios, Al Monitor reported.
For decades, Fatah had called for an armed struggle. In a 1974 speech before the UN, late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat said he had “come bearing an olive branch and a freedom-fighter’s gun”.
But ever since Arafat made the political decision to reconcile with Israel in 1993, the so-called hand with the gun was brought down.
Arafat's successor, Mahmoud Abbas, 87, has insisted on the single method of political negotiations, emphasising popular nonviolent protests as a means of showing that Palestinians reject the status quo.
The aging Abbas, who never had the charisma of his predecessorArafat, further lost popularity after he abruptly postponed Palestinian general elections in 2021 and continued to maintain security coordination with the Israelis, Al Monitor reported.
The principled political position of Abbas -- depending solely on the UN and international diplomacy -- has failed him.
Hamas, for its part, has succeeded in moving the political waters with its October 7 attack. After years of de-prioritising the Palestinian issue, the White House recently expressed commitment to a two-state solution once the war on Gaza is over, giving credence to those saying that so-called armed struggle is needed to force a political solution, Al Monitor reported.
In the meantime, Fatah, the PLO, and Abbas have had little to say as the guns on all sides (not just Hamas and Israel, but also Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen) dominate the discussion and the 24-hour news cycles.
Fatah’s leaders have generally been quiet following October 7, though Abbas has expressed Palestinian aspirations in public Arab League meetings.
Meanwhile, Jordan's king, queen and foreign minister have had more effective rhetoric than the Palestinian president, having received wider pickup and resonating more with global audiences, Al Monitor reported.
Still, despite criticism that Abbas is no longer relevant, it is unclear who the new Fatah players would be.
Separate from the success or failure of Israel's stated aim in Gaza — namely, to eradicate Hamas — the question of what would happen the day after the fighting stops in Gaza has not yet been answered in a convincing way.
Most analysts agree that Hamas will not be allowed to have any role in governing the Gaza Strip. Equally, most don’t believe that Abbas will be willing or able to enter Gaza on the back of an Israeli military victory.
Some argue that an international force is needed to fill the governance vacuum, but Mohammad Ishtaye, the Fatah Central Committee member who is still the prime minister in Ramallah, has rejected the idea.
Ishtayenoted thatthe Palestinian Authority has been running public institutions in Gaza for 30 years and that it will not agree to any divided solutions between Gaza and the West Bank, Al Monitor reported.
Privately, sources in Ramallah are saying that Abbas is now much more open to giving Hamas a bigger say in the affairs of the PLO. This seems to echo former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's recentarticle in which he says he's “doubtful that the PA as currently configured would be willing to shoulder the responsibilities of governing Gaza after a deadly and destructive Israeli offensive runs its course”, Al Monitor reported.
Fayyad argues that “in accordance with its Basic Law, the PA would, through a government consented to by the expanded PLO, assume full control over managing the affairs of the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza during a multiyear transitional period."
"It is impossible to see how the PLO can credibly make any commitment to nonviolence as part of any attempt to restart the peace process if Hamas and factions of a similar orientation are not represented."