Global trade growth to slow to 1.7% in 2023: WTO report


Geneva, Apr 6 (IANS): Global trade growth in 2023 will slow to 1.7 per cent, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in its annual trade statistics and outlook report.

The volume of world merchandise trade has been weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the report said on Wednesday.

However, the forecast for trade growth in 2023 is up from the previous estimate of 1 per cent from last October. China's adjustment of its Covid-19 measures is a "key factor" in this increase, the report added. The reopening of China is expected to boost international trade, the report said.

Dragged down by a sharp slump in the fourth quarter, world trade volume grew by 2.7 per cent, "a smaller-than-expected increase".

According to WTO economists, the global GDP at market exchange rates will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2023. Meanwhile, projections for trade and GDP growth in 2023 are below the averages for the past 12 years, of 2.6 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively, Xinhua news agency reported.

"The lingering effects of Covid-19 and the rising geopolitical tensions were the main factors impacting trade and output in 2022, and this is likely to be the case in 2023 as well," said Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist.

Interest rate hikes in advanced economies have also revealed weaknesses in banking systems that could lead to wider financial instability if left unchecked, he added.

"Governments and regulators need to be alert to these and other financial risks in the coming months," he said.

"Trade continues to be a force for resilience in the global economy, but it will remain under pressure from external factors in 2023. This makes it even more important for governments to avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from introducing obstacles to trade," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

"Investing in multilateral cooperation on trade, as WTO members did at our 12th Ministerial Conference last June, would bolster economic growth and people's living standards over the long term," she stressed.

According to the report, global trade growth should rebound to 3.2 per cent in 2024, as global GDP growth picks up to 2.6 per cent.

The estimate is more uncertain than usual due to the presence of substantial downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food supply shocks, and the possibility of unforeseen fallout from monetary tightening, the report added.

 

  

Top Stories


Leave a Comment

Title: Global trade growth to slow to 1.7% in 2023: WTO report



You have 2000 characters left.

Disclaimer:

Please write your correct name and email address. Kindly do not post any personal, abusive, defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent, discriminatory or unlawful or similar comments. Daijiworld.com will not be responsible for any defamatory message posted under this article.

Please note that sending false messages to insult, defame, intimidate, mislead or deceive people or to intentionally cause public disorder is punishable under law. It is obligatory on Daijiworld to provide the IP address and other details of senders of such comments, to the authority concerned upon request.

Hence, sending offensive comments using daijiworld will be purely at your own risk, and in no way will Daijiworld.com be held responsible.